A Book of Silence

My review at Amazon.

A Major Update

There was a palbable sense of dismay amongst fillies of both species yesterday afternoon, as local "boss" and not-quite-a-gelding, Major, checked out of Tidmarsh paddocks for a 2-week trial at an Ascot charity. The novelty-seeking cobb loaded at the first time of asking, amazing those humans who've sweated blood to get him on board for previous trips.

Not everyone at Tidmarsh shared the dismay at his departure. As stable mate, "Big Bad" Bailey, pointed out:

"That cantankerous old Section C has been lauding it over the rest of us for long enough. It's about time someone else got first choice of hay-piles."

And referring to the power vaccuum that's opened up:

"Some of us are ready to take the step up to herd-leadership; that was never going to happen with him around. There's going to be some changes around here this autumn, believe me."

Major himself seemed delighted with his new accommodation, immediately wandering over to his new paddock mates to deliver a friendly nip on the crest. Horses and ponies from adjoining fields were whinnying in small groups when news spread ("look, look, it really is him!").

There's no official word yet on where the no-nonsense new arrival is expected to fit into the local heirarchy. Insiders have said "He'll need to take a driving test, like everyone else". Some experts point to his frequent indolence when asked to take part in structured activities of this sort; others point out that his surprising "enthusiasm" for new environments may shock those expecting an easy-paced ride.

Time will tell.

Are you an investor that bought the FTSE100 this week?

If you are, I'd like your help: just tell me why?

If you're a trader, well that's different. But if you're an investor, please tell me what is so attractive about a market that currently on a p/e of 17.3 (weighted by market cap.) or 14.4 (median).

Maybe if the prospects for future earnings were really good, that would be understandable; but analysts estimates of future earnings (yeah, I know, who trusts analysts; but what to do?) for next year for F100 companies show next year's earnings will be down 4.9% on this year's (Source: Sharescope).

So the market doesn't make sense to me; no surprise there then. Am I going to back my judgement by shorting the market on Monday? Nah, of course not.

Review of The Black Swan by Nasim Taleb

My thoughts on The Black Swan are here.

Magnificent Major

It looks like Major's going to go and live in Kent, at least in the short term. And whilst I shall certainly regret his departure, I doubt that he will miss me much. Whilst it's fresh in memory, I shall relate a few things about Major that I've learned over the year he's been with us.



Things that Major Dislikes

• Stables. Well, maybe for particularly bad weather, or if it's breakfast time. But basically, if he's left there for much more than a hour or so, he'll be kicking the door down, just in case you're in any doubt what he thinks.




• Most other horses: actually, I think he's ambivalent about most of them (but see Fillies & Mares, below). Give him his head in the stable area and he'll wander round each of the stables, nosing up to each of the occupants by sticking his head firmly inside the stable; no doubt who's in charge here.




• Anything to do with driving around cones; he's just not interested in nonsense like that. Same goes for long-reining or "practice" sessions in the training paddock. Over-extend his patience and you might get a slightly faster ride than you wanted; and he'll be heading for the exit at every opportunity. Do not expect blind obedience.
  
  
  
• Faddy training methods. Major is a very "knowing" horse; he's seen it all. In fact, I think he probably knows more about being a horse, driving, and how humans interact with horses than any other man or beast.
  
  
  





• Your Agenda, when it's different from his. He will try to accommodate you if you decide you want to ride rather than drive, but basically don't expect his mood to improve. And when he had sore feet once, he reluctantly went out the gate and down the road, but refused point blank to go beyond the next gate that would take us swiftly back home. The air turned blue with as J screamed and shouted at him to "walk on"; but he knew what was right for him, and clip-clopping up a hard road was not it. Not that all this drama drove him to do anything rash, like dart across the road in front of traffic (which by this stage had stopped in both directions). He just calmly waited for J to give-in, and give him the word to turn for home. Very smart boy; for which he earned the nickname "Old Two Hooves": as in, that's what I think of your plan for today.
  

Things that Major Likes

• Food: especially grass, the sweeter and fresher the better (also the way he prefers his fillies, for that matter). Decent chaff is good for a change, but if he's being fed at the same time as the other nags, he'll be sure to check their buckets aren't any tastier than his (they won't object if they've got any sense...). And if it must be hay, it had better be crunchy; definitely not wet.
  
  


• Fillies & Mares: unlike the other geldings on site, Major is far from incapable. This surprised my dear wife one frosty morning, when she went down to see how well he was getting on with his new paddock "mate", a young and untouched filly. They were getting on just fine, actually! His reputation must have spread, because mares generally are on more familiar terms with him than any of the geldings.
  
  


• Subservience: all other equines are expected to comply, and when he joined the herd about a year ago, it was the existing "boss" - a young, bully-boy Spanish nag, much larger than Major - that took the punishment. His education lasted about a week - we can tell this because after that time, the blood wounds stopped appearing on Spanish (I recall none at all on Major).
  
  
  
• Rivers: a friend called him the "aquatic pony", on account of the time he spent paddling around in the stream at the end of the paddock. And when the cold weather came and the other nags were aghast to find their water supply frozen over, it was only Major who had the wit to know that the stream also contained water, and that it was quite drinkable.
  

• Interesting New Places. Being a most intelligent pony (most nags, I tell you, betray nothing when you look into their eyes, because frankly, there's not much to betray), Major likes new places to run around. We took him out to Ashe Warren farm last week, a lovely spot with great views. Major stormed around the place, completely surprising J and some of the other nag experts who'd marked down as "lazy" or just plain difficult.
  
  




• Aesthetic Experiences Driving the other day, we came to a particularly good view over the countryside, and he just stopped for a minute to take it all in. Unprompted. He wasn't particularly tired or even bolshy (this time); just taking in the view. And in his own time, he carried on round the course.




• Baths in warm weather. Being a welsh mountain pony, he's not so keen on the heat. But a decent hosing down after work: sheer bliss. I should have token a photo .
  
  
  
• Open gates: nothing's better than the prospect of an unauthorised escape from the paddock. He'll run off excitedly and do a little jig that culminates in some serious bucking; steer well clear of that!

Basically, this is a horse that knows what he likes, and how his world functions. Hopefully he'll be all too much to handle for his new hosts, and we'll see him back in the spring.

Everything Ravaged, Everything Burned

Read here my thoughts of the book of short stories, Everything Ravaged, Everything Burned.

Urgent Notice: Potential Danger of Horse Hair

I was sent this by my dear wife:

This is a public service announcement...

In a press release today, the National Institute of Health (US) has announced the discovery of a potentially dangerous substance in the hair of horses.

This substance, called "amobacter equuii" has been linked with the following symptoms in females:

• Reluctance to cook, clean or do housework.
• Reluctance to wear make-up, good clothes or heels.
• Reluctance to spend money on home or car repairs until after "baby has new shoes, pad, rug, saddle, feed, hay & supplements".

"Amobacter equuii" usually results in long hours away from home and exhaustion which may lead to a loss of physical contact with other humans (especially husbands).

"Amobacter equuii" is thought to be addictive, driving the need for additional sources - this may lead to a "herd mentality" or, just like gin or vodka, "..you can't have just one".

Beware! If you come in contact with a female human infected by this substance, be prepared to talk about horses for hours.

Surgeon General's Warning:
Horses are expensive, addictive, and may impair the ability to use common sense.

On Financial Planning (v. short quote)

From this week's Investor's Chronicle, in an article by the excellent Chris Dillow

In financial planning, there are really only two problems to avoid: that you'll outlive your wealth or that your wealth will outlive you. All else is secondary.

Tour Manager's Diary, 20 - 23 August, 2009

As I sit down to write this account of a small works-based cricket club that's just completed its 2009 tour of Suffolk, others are drawing up fevered accounts of how the English cricket team have just regained the Ashes. It is a memorable afternoon, and I am not a little jealous of the three tourists who cut short their stay with us to watch this afternoon's play at the Oval.

But it's this kind of thing that I'm really here to discuss.

"Defendable, if not Defensible" (Chris Healey)

Last year we batted first at Essex University, scored a few runs whilst losing quick wickets, and went onto lose easily. This year, we batted first at Essex University, scored a few runs whilst losing quick wickets, and ... well.

Chris Hoban and Tony Hawkhead opened for Mandarins, and without undue haste put a few runs on the board. But then Chris guided a ball to point, called for a suicidal single, which Tony heeded. He was lucky because the keeper fumbled the return; but Chris, meanwhile, remained rooted to the spot as he watched the drama unfold, and once the groans from the bungled run out had subsided, Essex realised that a new run out was a certainty once the ball had relocated to the other end. It was a near-freak method of running yourself out and not so encouraging an omen for the days to follow.

Tony quickly returned to pavilion himself when a ball that he'd left did an amazing right-turn to clip a stump.

This pitch was more than a little bowler friendly, which is not really an excuse for us to reach 27-4. It took John Porter (13) and Chris Healey (39) to add most of the runs, and with a little help from "Johnny" Extras (second top score: 17), Mandarins reached 117.

As an aside, I should add this contribution from Chris Healey:

i'm sure your reports won't fail to mention the essex quote (was it martin? i don't recall) about "we have our two most arrogant batsmen at the crease now" - referring to trott and prior i think, although naturally interpreted as yourself and ollie.

Yes, that sounds like Martin to me!

Speaking honestly, this total was not that defendable, and certainly not defensible, even on this pitch. Except that with Martin Hurst bowling at the pavilion end, wickets began to fall at an amazing rate. The wicket was very dry and dusty, and doing quite remarkable things when Martin had the ball in his hands. The sheer quantity of bounce and turn made batting for Essex every bit as difficult as we had made it seem. More than one batsman stared agog when their wicket had been lost, unable to quite believe what had happened. No one can remember when two catches were last taken at short leg (that's Chris Healey again).

Martin's 10-4-26-5 were supported by Chris's 7-2-17-3 and Chris Hoban's 9-1-26-2, whilst Ollie and I contributed a further 13 overs for 29. With 13 extras, Essex's innings completed on 104, giving Mandarins a win by 13.

Incidentally, Andy McKeon pointed out that Constable painted a picture from the site near where our match was played; it is here.

Framlingham College

The centre-piece of each year's Tour, if not the whole season, is our game against the Bob Morris XI.

After an uncertain weather start, the game enjoyed excellent weather conditions for the most part. We bowled first, and on a perfect white-wicket, given, as ever, to the pleasures of the batting classes, runs accumulated quickly and evenly.

Unusually, both opposition openers "retired hurt", but not before Simon Halliday (78) had taken full advantage of the conditions. Mandarins bowling figures are not really worth repeating, which is not intended as a slight on our efforts (remember, your Tour Manager has deselected himself from this fixture for at least 3 years now). However, I must mention Louis Williams (age: about 1/3 of the average of the rest of us), whose 2-23 accounted for half the team's haul of wickets.

The opposition progressed to 218 - 4.

Why Doesn't Johnny Pay Match Fees?

He's a stalwart of the team: always available, turns up on time and frequently makes a meaningful contribution to our score. Today he was second top score with 18, almost one fifth of our total. Only Damian Paterson scored more, before he fell to an LBW shout that Stephen Dunmore couldn't fail to give.

Losing "Damo" was a pity for the sizeable crowd, because quite apart from the fact that he was actually scoring runs, his 32 had come from 40 balls and included 7 boundaries. Only Louis and Chris McKeon could claim a similar scoring rate (13 from 16 and 10* from 15), whereas others (names witheld for obvious reasons) were somewhat more pained:

• 5 from 29;
• 6 from 25;
• 16 from 46
• 4 from 19.

etc.

In recording the above, I am benefiting from the fastidious labours of Jim Thomson, whose scorecard also shows that after 10 overs we had reached a mighty 18 runs, at the cost of 2 wickets.

Of course, our opponents did bowl well and included, so I'm told, a Northamptonshire Academy player.

If we're into "taking positives" out of this performance, it would be that the younger generation (Chris McKeon and Louis) both scored more than their fathers; we were, however, some way short when our innings closed at 116 all out.



Curiously, every Mandarins wicket was taken by an opposition bowler whose name begin with "B"; whilst at Essex all our wicket-taking bowlers started with "H". Whether that means anything I doubt, but Martin, at least, was impressed by it.

Incidentally, one of the scores above is the Australian first innings at the Oval...

Worlingworth

I would like to point out that despite suffering 391 runs of punishment, the £6.99 ball I bought at JJB Sports survived today's game very well. Even better news is the news that Mandarins can take credit for 204 of these.

Openers Tony Hawkhead (41) and Chris Baker (18) fended off the swift but occasionally erratic efforts of a young bowling attack. Tony top scored with 41 today, and has the bruises to show how he has suffered for his art, the sight of which put me off my breakfast the following morning.

Jeremy Jarvis (24), David Williams (34*) and I (run out, I must add, in controversial circumstances for 14) also contributed; whilst David Lowen was unlucky to demolish his own stumps whilst having collateral damage inflicted on his ribs by a fast bouncy delivery.

The observant amongst you will have worked out that these runs in aggregate sum to much fewer than the 204 I mentioned above; indeed, without "Johnny" we would have made a somewhat less impressive 135. That's 69 extras credited to our account (wides: 28), a fact that deserves my first exclamation mark!

The wicket was hard and bouncy, if not terribly fast (thankfully), but it was Rob Eastaway (8-2-21-5) and Jim Thomson (7-0-45-2) who took most of the wickets. JC Gray was bowling fast and accurately for 7-2-26-1 and deserves much more credit than these figures suggest.

But actually, the really stupendous moments of the innings were two amazing catches taken by David Williams at deep long on. The first was high and to David's left; he had to run some distance and collect the ball just above the ground whilst still on the move. I do not exaggerate to say that this would receive an ovation on any cricket ground in the world.

The second was closer to him, but if the ball had reached any higher I fear it would have entered Earth orbit. I hardly need point out that both these victims were crucial to the Worlingworth run chase; but despite the regular loss of wickets, they aggressively pursued their run chase till the very end, despite being 9 wickets down by this stage.

Other chances were dropped, I'm afraid to say, including one particular feeble effort on my part. In fact, Jim can quite reasonably claim a five-fer if we include the drops.

In the end, the match was drawn as Worlingworth finished on 187-9.

The new pavilion at the ground continues to grow into a first rate facility for local players, and the welcome we received was particularly warm. We hope to keep on with this fixture next year.

Other Tour Stuff

As usual, the Suffolk Tour is about more than just the cricket. Our Thursday night curry was a good one and the food and beer at the Station on Friday was really excellent.


Poker
Poker wasn't played so much this year, maybe because of the absence of key players (Gus, Marc: we missed you!). The only game I managed to start was delayed when Jonathan Wilmot, returning from a fag break, suddenly asked the remaining players, at 00:30, for our opinions on the effect of ballooning public debt on the general happiness of the population. Amazingly, this debate completely occupied the next two hours, by which time my contact lenses had unpeeled from my eyeballs.

The answer, incidentally, was somewhere between "not as much as you think", and "it depends".

And Finally
I would like to thank all our opposition teams for putting out sides at a time of the year which, as we all know, is a difficult month for fielding cricket teams. And also to Framlingham College, whose facilities are excellent and ideally suited to this occasion.

Thanks also to those who took on captaining duties, and to Tony for looking after the beer and wine once again, as well as finding a source of decent cricket balls in Fram; Tony will be our Tour Manager in 2010, and I'm looking forward to it already.

THE END

Victory on the Dark Squares

Although this season has been about as dismal as it gets, I have managed to play one or two decent correspondence games. In this one, I get myself into quite a pickle as black, to the point where my position felt so uncomfortable as to be resignable. White must have lost his way here, and the surprising Kings side counter-attack on the dark squares was must satisfying.

Moneyweek Magazine: A Little Plug

I don't normally like to plug products, but I recently discovered Moneyweek magazine and have found it to be so useful I thought I'd share with you. It's a weekly paper that keeps me up-to-date with markets, investment and all the relevant political issues. It's concise enough that I can read all the relevant bits in an hour or so, and browse some of the other articles (How to Spend it, etc.) at leisure during the week. On economics it presents many ideas that I just haven't read anywhere else.

The website gives a test of its content, but a paper subscription (£17 per quarter) is excellent value.

I should point out that I have no connection with magazine or any of its writers etc.

Blunder of the Season (I hope)

First round of the Dorset Closed Championship and I'm feeling reasonably happy with this position, which came from a rather poorly played line of the Queens Gambit Accepted.

How often is it unsafe to complete development by castling after an opponent has just made a K move? Almost everytime, yes?

Black has just played 14...Kg7, and without thinking I returned to the board (metaphorically) and swapped my K & R. As I was writing the move down it occurred to me that Rc8 would be a nuisance. Wrong again.

Not a nuisance but a disaster. Black's rook was sitting on c8 before I had even looked back at the board. Disgusted with myself, I resigned after sticking my Q on a6. But to make it worse, my opponent - whose 161 grade presumably means he's not always so wrong about things - started droning on about how the position was obviously loads better for him even before my wretched castling ("of course the a-pawn is going to just run down the board").

I asked black to take a look at it with me and show me just how he was going to "run the a-pawn", which he did for only a short while (black's pieces are a bit awkwardly placed, really).

Gah!

13 Guillotines

I don't believe that dreams have any greater significance (at least, I've not seen any evidence they do), but the other night I did have such an odd dream that I remember it now.

It was about The 13 Guillotines. In the dream, I picked up a typically swollen Sunday supplement and find therein an article stating something like:

Not many people know that during the French Revolution that the heads of nobles were cut off almost entirely by just 13 guillotines. They each had a different design, and some have been preserved.

The article - which in my dream I found too compelling to ignore - then went on to picture each guillotine (I can even now remember some of the designs), accompany it with some words and a summary of who met their grisly ends at its blade.

I can't imagine how I came up with this!